Sunday, July 31, 2011

Shaw Capital Management: Brazil’s Economy

Brazil’s economy emerged from a deep but short recession in the second half of last year. The economy is expected to grow by at least 5.5% this year. But along with economic growth, expectations of higher inflation have also returned.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Brazil’s  Economy - The government’s target for annual consumer price inflation is 4.5%. To contain inflation Brazil’s central bank has raised banking reserve requirements on term deposits from 13% to 15%. In addition to the increase in reserve requirements, the bank also restored additional charges on cash and term deposits to 8% from 5% and 4%, respectively.

According to the Central Bank President Henrique Meirelles, the changes were necessary to neutralize the impact of excess liquidity brought by reserve requirement reductions made in 2008, amid the onslaught of the global financial crisis. However, for the central bank it would be a politically difficult task to raise interest rates in the run up to Brazil’s presidential, congressional and other elections in October.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Brazil’s  Economy - The government has launched a new investment trust to invest in the domestic Brazilian economy. BM&F Bovespa, the São Paulo equities and derivatives exchange is to raise its stake in the CME Group of Chicago, the
world’s biggest exchange group, to 5% in an attempt to attract more institutional and retail investors to Brazil.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Brazil’s  Economy - The plan for the two exchanges is to work together to develop a new multiasset electronic trading platform based on the CME’s Globex system.

President Lula da Silva, the most popular President in Brazilian history, would like to see October’s presidential election as a plebiscite on his eight years in power. He is asking voters to transfer his success to Ms Dilma Rousseff, his chief minister, whose candidacy has been endorsed by his Workers’ party (PT).

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Brazil’s  Economy - Ms Rousseff is further to the left than the present administration, but she has pledged not to make a sudden change of direction. The investors andvoters believe her so far.

We look forward to working with you and being the open architects of your financial well being.

Our goal is to provide consistent quality investment advice to our clients. Although the stock market provides many facets of opportunity for today's investor, there are always just a few stellar markets or niche companies at any given time. It is true that in a healthy market, investments yield favourable returns in a given growth area. The key is to pick those investments that are driving the trends and will become tomorrow's brightest stars.
One problem is proper allocation of research resources. It is true there is power in numbers, and teams of researchers will generally spot and confirm trends that the individual investor would miss. But on the other hand, too broad of an effort will squander research resources and loose sight of those special investments in an overwhelming sea.

Developing Strategic Research Capital. By having broad and robust resources, then viewing and deploying those resources in a multi-dimensional fashion, a balanced research model is created yielding greater and more focused results. In short, Research Capital. To achieve this result, research is targeted to different dynamics of the market rather than a flat view of just general market trends.
Market trends are viewed across a broad spectrum for change and interaction with associated segments, and then for life and duration of changes.

From this initial analysis comes the ability to focus resources on those segments and opportunities that will shine brightest and meet your investment goals. This is the result of a properly developed research program yielding the greatest return of Research Capital, in short a wealth of specific focused knowledge to provide the depth of advice you need to make the right decision.

At Shaw Capital Asset Management your investment is important to us. That same care in managing our Market Analysis Research Strategy provides you with the information you need to make the right choice. 

Shaw Capital Management Newsletter: Summary

Equity Markets. All the major equity markets, and most of the emerging markets, have moved higher over the month. Wall Street has provided most of the momentum, encouraged by optimistic comments from the Fed and by the flow of favourable corporate results.

Markets in mainland Europe have responded, despite the uncertainties about debt defaults; the UK market had coped well with a disappointing Budget statement that has left all the difficult
decisions until after the forthcoming general election; and the best performance amongst the major markets has occurred in the Japanese market as it has recovered from earlier weakness.

Shaw Capital Management Newsletter: Summary. Financial Markets. The mood in the financial markets has become more optimistic again over the past month. There are still concerns about the prospects for the some economies; and the latest agreement amongst the member countries of the euro-zone to offer help to Greece “if this becomes necessary” has been received with considerable scepticism in the markets. This has not really eased the fears about the possibility of sovereign debt defaults. But there have still been no significant moves towards
“exit strategies” by central banks and governments, and so monetary and fiscal policies remain stimulatory, and this has helped to reassure investors that the global economic recovery will continue,  Even if the pace in the Euro zone is disappointing.

Government bond markets have had another difficult month. The latest agreement amongst the member countries of the euro-zone to offer help to Greece has not been well received, Greek bonds have continued to weaken, and this has provided further momentum to the switching operations out of the bonds of weaker countries. For most of the past month these switching operations benefited the major bond markets; but towards month-end a series of disappointing auctions led to a sharp fall in the world bond market and increased the overall mood of uncertainty. The massive funding requirements resulting from the measures to counter the recession are clearly putting great strain on all the bond markets.

Movements amongst the major currencies have been fairly limited over the past month, but the markets remain very uncertain. The dollar has retained its “safe haven” status, despite the sudden weakness in the world bond market.

Investors and traders have awaited further evidence about debt problems in Europe that might affect the euro, and about the policy decisions in the UK after the general election that might affect sterling; but the view in the markets seems to be that both currencies will fall further against the US dollar. The yen has also weakened over the month, with the move attributed to the resumption of “carry-trade” operations financed by cheap yen borrowings.





Short-Term Interest Rates. There have been no changes in short-term interest rates in the major markets over the month.

Shaw Capital Management Newsletter: Summary. Commodity markets have been encouraged by the general improvement in sentiment, but have produced a mixed performance. Base metal prices are sharply higher, but soft commodity prices are mixed, with the further big fall in sugar prices as the main feature.

At Shaw Capital Management we give you the information and insight you need to make the right investment choices. We look forward to working with you and being the open architects of your financial well being.

Every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor. Our philosophy is simple: almost every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.

Before Shaw Capital launched the open architecture revolution, investors had to make the unhappy choice between selecting an advisor who was independent, but unsophisticated (the traditional pension and endowment consulting firms), or selecting an advisor who was sophisticated but had conflicting interests (global banks, trust companies, money management firms).

Today, virtually all investors faced with the challenge of managing a significant pool of capital can access open architecture advice.

A true open architecture firm is completely independent of the rest of the financial services industry and accepts compensation only from its clients. In addition, open architecture firms must make the financial commitment to hire only the most experienced advisors, and those advisors must apply their experience to the issues that will most affect their clients' wealth.
Matters like asset allocation and manager search are simply too important to be left in the hands of young analysts. We are proud of our role in leading the open architecture revolution, and look forward to introducing you to its benefits.


Portfolio Recommendations: Shaw Capital Management Korea

We have made no changes in the balance of our portfolios this month. The strength of the equity markets is encouraging, and we expect that the global economy will continue to recover, and push the markets even higher by year-end.

Portfolio Recommendations: Shaw Capital Management Korea. Market Developments. Economies virtually everywhere have been recovering for some months; the question is what to do post-crisis. For some, like Ireland, Iceland and Latvia, there is little option but severe and immediate public sector retrenchment. For most however there is a choice: on the fiscal side
cuts (or tax rises) now, or later spread over a long period. On the monetary side, continued printing of money or cessation and even reversal. In fact this is one of those periods when the ‘independence’ of central banks, that is their independent authority to set interest rates and
the extent of money printing, is a disadvantage for the economy, all of which need at present careful coordination of monetary and fiscal policy.

Portfolio Recommendations: Shaw Capital Management Korea. There has been an increase in the risks in the bond market; the current situation, with the latest attempts to resolve the Greek debt crisis achieving only limited success, and a sudden weakening in the world bond market emphasising the funding problems that are affecting the entire bond market.

Portfolio Recommendations: Shaw Capital Management Korea. Independence of Central Banks. Economies virtually everywhere have been recovering for some months, the question is what to do post-crisis. For some, like Ireland, Iceland and Latvia, there is little option but severe and immediate public sector retrenchment.

For most however there is a choice: on the fiscal side cuts (or tax rises) now, or later spread over a long period. On the monetary side, continued printing of money or cessation and even reversal. In fact this is one of those periods when the ‘independence’ of central banks, that is their independent authority to set interest rates and the extent of money printing, is a disadvantage for the economy, all of which need at present careful coordination of monetary and fiscal policy.


At Shaw Capital Management we give you the information and insight you need to make the right investment choices. We look forward to working with you and being the open architects of your financial well being.

Every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor. Our philosophy is simple: almost every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.

Before Shaw Capital Management South Korea launched the open architecture revolution, investors had to make the unhappy choice between selecting an advisor who was independent, but unsophisticated (the traditional pension and endowment consulting firms), or selecting an advisor who was sophisticated but had conflicting interests (global banks, trust companies, money management firms).

Today, virtually all investors faced with the challenge of managing a significant pool of capital can access open architecture advice.

Sunday, July 24, 2011

Shaw Capital Financing on International Purchase Order Financing

For Canada, UK and beyond - On this challenging economy you are looking into new territories, markets and industry channels, some of those may be based outside the US. Unlike most purchase order financing companies, we work with businesses seeking growth in foreign markets such as Canada, Mexico, UK and Asia. Whether you are looking for PO financing in Canada, purchase order financing in Mexico or PO funding throughout the EU, our international PO financing program is designed to assist your business to grow and expand in the global marketplace.

Shaw Capital Management and Financing sharing information, tips and advice on factoring and accounts receivable financing and factoring to avoid scams and other fraudulent transactions. Information focus on the importance of choosing the right firm and understanding the intricacies of this financing alternative and what pitfalls to avoid.

What is purchase order financing

Every business faces the challenge of managing cash flow. One tool to make it easier is purchase order financing. It gives you access to working capital in a manner that is quick, convenient and affordable. Companies use purchase order funding to support an expansion, handle a large order or surge in business, and even occasionally for operating expenses. The tool is particularly well suited to newer companies that cannot get authorized for a traditional business loan. Manufacturers, distributors, importers and exporters are good examples. Lets say your suppliers want you to pay cash on delivery, but your customer won’t pay you until 60 days after they receive your finish product - a classic cash flow problem, which purchase order financing is designed to solve. Here are some other applications:

Inexperience in generating financing
Lack of working capital
Need to keep suppliers and customers separate
Desire to avoid credit risk (PO financing is not considered debt)
Immediate sales need calls for fast response
Profit opportunity
How does purchase order financing work
Purchase order financing involves issuing letters of credit to suppliers of finished or non-finished goods, based on specific, tangible goods that have been presold to a creditworthy end customer. It can help you deliver on time, increase market share, and grow without selling equity or incurring bank debt. You will need to supply financial information about your company, customer and supplier. We take care of the rest, usually offering approval and getting your short-term funding to you in as little as two weeks. You can use this cash flow management tool to meet future growth opportunities, too -once your account is set up, the process is faster still.
About PurchaseOrderFinancing.com

PurchaseOrderFinancing.com serves as the link between small businesses and the working capital they need to seize an atypically large business opportunity. This website is the newest addition to the structured finance firm founded by Dan Casey in 2002 which develops and implements creative financial strategies for commercial clients with working capital challenges. Dan Casey, Founder and CEO. A graduate of DePaul University in Finance, Dan has orchestrated an extraordinary career in starting and building businesses.

Shaw Capital Management: South Korea’s Economy

South Korea’s output is continuing to accelerate, and the government needs
to exit from its accommodative economic policies earlier than anticipated.
The HSBC Korea’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose from 55.6 in
January to 58.2 in February — the highest since December 2007. New orders
are coming in, and there are rising backlogs of unfulfilled orders.

Shaw Capital Management: South Korea’s Economy - Employment too is rising suggesting that the current pace of growth will
be sustained for the next several months. Inflation paced a little with
consumer prices up 3.1% in January from a year earlier. But inflation in
Korea is likely to remain stable for some months.

The central bank is expected to tighten its monetary policy by starting to
raise interest rates from the current record low of 2% in the later part of
the second quarter as the government retains its focus on job creation and
growth.

Shaw Capital Management: South Korea’s Economy - Exports expanded 31% year on year, better than Reuters’ forecast of 22.7%.
South Korea posted a much larger-than-expected trade surplus of $2.33
billion in February as ship deliveries boosted exports, while imports fell as
holidays reduced crude oil and natural gas demand.

The government expects a monthly trade surplus of more than $1 billion
from March as demand improves. The current-account surplus is most
likely to dwindle to around $17 billion this year from $42.7 billion in 2009
as imports rise. A new Bank of Korea governor, widely expected to be a
more pro-government figure, will not rush to raise rates after taking office
in April.

Exports grew 31% from a year earlier to $33.27 billion, faster than the
expected rise of 21%, while imports climbed 36.9% to $30.94 billion, exceeding
a forecast of an expansion of 34.0%.

South Korea, which is heading the G20 group of leading economies wants
to leave an imprint of its presidency.

Shaw Capital Management: South Korea’s Economy - It is trying to introduce a system of international currency swaps which it
hopes will reduce global imbalances by lessening the need for countries to
accumulate reserves, seen as one of the causes of last year’s financial and
economic crisis.

Shaw Capital Management - Every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.
Our philosophy is simple: almost every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.

Before Shaw Capital launched the open architecture revolution, investors had to make the unhappy choice between selecting an advisor who was independent, but unsophisticated (the traditional pension and endowment consulting firms), or selecting an advisor who was sophisticated but had conflicting interests (global banks, trust companies, money management firms).

Today, virtually all investors faced with the challenge of managing a significant pool of capital can access open architecture advice.

A true open architecture firm is completely independent of the rest of the financial services industry and accepts compensation only from its clients.

In addition, open architecture firms must make the financial commitment to hire only the most experienced advisors, and those advisors must apply their experience to the issues that will most affect their clients' wealth.

Matters like asset allocation and manager search are simply too important to be left in the hands of young analysts.

We are proud of our role in leading the open architecture revolution, and look forward to introducing you to its benefits.

Taiwan’s Economy: by Shaw Capital Management Korea

With gross domestic product clocking 10.2% growth from a year ago in the
fourth quarter, and 4.2% from the previous quarter, Taiwan returned to
pre-financial crisis growth levels. In spite of the strong recovery in the
second half of the year, Taiwan’s economy still shrank by 1.9% in 2009.
The government expects GDP to grow 4.7% this year, an upward revision
from its previous forecast of 4.4% growth. With rising new orders Taiwan’s
economy has entered a sustained expansion cycle.

Taiwan’s exports rose 75.8% in January to US$21.75 billion from US$12.37
billion a year earlier and imports in January more than doubled to US$19.25
billion from US$8.97 billion a year earlier.

Taiwan had a trade surplus of US$2.49 billion in Jnanuary, bigger than the
government forecast of a US$1.93 billion surplus. The island had a trade
surplus of US$1.65 billion in December.

Taiwan will lower investment barriers for its technology companies to do
business in China. This sector is the latest to benefit from tighter economic
ties between the mainland and the island.

Shaw Capital Management – New Economy - Although we have seen an explosive decade of growth and cycle in the economy, the bombs have been filtered out leaving the economy poised for steady and certain growth. Smart money is now wise to the problems the past few years, lessons have been learned, and the best investments are now at hand.

We have seen extraordinary growth in technology, but at the same time a buffering and selection process in industry. Although the infrastructure is stable for the moment, there are new technologies emerging, which would otherwise have been lost in the chaotic trends of recent times. This settling of the infrastructure will allow these new technologies to become visible more easily, but fast response time is critical.

Poised for Growth. Based on the stabilized infrastructure and upswing and recovery in the economy, business is poised for an explosive period of growth as smart money now focuses in on those business models and innovations designed for success. These select companies are key to your financial growth and your future wealth.

But how to determine which companies are the movers. Short term trends only show day to day trading and market momentum. These are important indicators to a markets early acceptance of a company. The real key is having industry knowledge, and understanding how a company fits into the evolving New Economy over time.

What is required is a group of professionals working together sharing, discussing, and evaluating those market trends and the companies which will be filling the needs of industry over time. Through careful research the Shaw Capital Asset Management Korea staff of investment professionals document and compare the relative strengths of the hottest new companies and affiliates. Staff origins and histories are reviewed. Only those companies with the strongest and most consistent foundations are considered.
From those companies with strong foundations of support, the technology and product offerings are then compared in search of the stellar products which address industry needs for a stable fit into the economy, but also do so in a fashion which goes beyond just "filling a gap" in the market. In other words, a strong company and equally strong and visionary products.
This type of dedication and selection is what allows us to be a driving force behind the evolution of the New Economy.

Sunday, July 17, 2011

Freight Bill Factoring – Right or Warning for Your Business

Shaw Capital Factoring and Management of Loans Freight Bill factoring Tips - One of the most difficult aspects of managing a trucking company – especially a small trucking company – is the cash flow. Cash flow is all about how money moves through your company. Unfortunately, when you have clients that pay 30 to 60 days after you have shipped for them, the cash flow can become a little strained. This is because, even though your customers have not paid yet, you still have daily expenses: truck maintenance, pay checks to personnel, fuel costs and more. So how do you cover these expenses when you do not have the ready capital to hand? One solution can be freight bill factoring.
Freight bill factoring v. traditional loan financing
Shaw Capital Management and Factoring, Right or Warning for Your Business - If you are a small trucking company (and maybe even a medium sized or large one), you know that sometimes it can be tough to get traditional loan financing. Often, especially if you are start up, or if you are going through a rapid period of expansion, you just do not have the available credit for traditional loan financing – and you still have the need for cash.
In such cases, freight bill factoring can help you obtain the capital you need. In freight bill factoring, a financing company – called a factor – basically buys the freight bill from you and advances you the cash. Often, the factor will in turn collect from the customer, meaning that once you turn the invoice over, it is also no longer something you need to worry about.
Basics of freight bill factoring - Freight Bill Factoring – Right or Warning for Your Business
Even thought there is not the same approval process that you would have to go through with the bank, the factor will still want to make sure that payment from your customers is likely. Your customer list may be scrutinized, and those that pass muster can provide the freight bills for factoring. It is possible to set up a regular arrangement with the factor so that cash flow remains regular. Here are some of the things you need to keep in mind about freight bill factoring:
Documentation. Proper documentation will be needed when you present a freight bill for factoring. You will need an original bill of lading, as well as other documents that the factor may request.
Fees. Be aware that you will be charge a fee for the advance. This is typically between three percent and five percent of the total. The fee depends on how reliable your customers are, and sometimes can depend on how quickly they pay their invoices.
Reserve. Sometimes, a factor will hold a reserve from the advance on the invoice. In such cases, many of them will pay between 85 and 90 percent of the freight bill up front. This is the advance. The rest is held in reserve, just in case the invoice is not paid, or if other fees need to be collected. When the invoice is paid, the rest of the freight bill (minus the fee) is paid. For example, if you have a bill for $1,000, the company may only advance you $900 on the spot. (Remember, though, this is better than the $0 you be getting otherwise.) If the fee is three percent of the total, $30 would be subtracted from the remaining $100 when the customer pays the invoice, leaving you with an additional $70.
Recourse v. non-recourse. It is very important to determine whether or not the factor you are working with offers a recourse or a non-recourse agreement. This is because it can make a very big difference in the rights the factor has in collecting on an invoice that is not paid. In a recourse agreement, the factor can require this article has all rights reserved and is copyright by 100 Best you to pay some or all of a freight bill if the customer does not pay. In a non-recourse factoring agreement, once freight bill is turned over to the factor, it is solely the factor’s responsibility. You are in the clear if the customer does not pay – you can keep your money (although you may not get the reserve back).
Getting your money from the factor. You need to find out how the factor will pay your advance. With freight bill factoring, the most common methods are wire transfer, ACH transfer and check. It is important to note that the funds may not be available for immediate withdrawal from your account. In same cases it may take 24 to 48 hours for the money to become available to you.
Freight bill factoring can be very beneficial to trucking companies. It allows you almost immediate access to capital, and can keep the cash flow in your company more liquid.

China’s Economy: by Shaw Capital Management Korea

China’s Economy: by Shaw Capital Management Korea - China will continue fiscal stimulus spending and its current monetary policies this year as the country has, in the opinion of the Chinese Communist Party, not fully recovered from the economic downturn.

The Chinese economy grew 8.7% in 2009, and will expand 8.5% in 2010. The consumer price index rose 1.5% in January from a year earlier, slowing from a 1.9% rise in December.

According to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the currentaccount surplus dropped to $284 billion, down by about a third from $426 billion for 2008, which was a record. It is the first decline in the currentaccount balance since 2001.

Shaw Capital Management Korea - China’s exports fell last year as global demand collapsed, but the nation’s stimulus plan helped support imports. China now accounts for more than 9% of global exports, a share that has been rising since the outbreak of the financial crisis and the ensuing collapse in global trade. China’s government says it isn’t banking on an export-driven future and has tried, though so far without much success, to shift the emphasis of the economy to domestic consumption and services.

According to International Monetary Fund projections, if current trends continue, China’s share of world exports will reach 12% by 2014, a higher portion than Japan managed at the peak of its dominance in the 1980s. China’s trade deficit with the US totalled $226.83 billion in 2009 — the U.S.’s largest imbalance with any nation. Mr. Obama has promised to the Congress to “get much tougher” with China on trade rules, including currency rates,
to ensure that U.S. goods are not at a competitive disadvantage.

Shaw Capital Management Korea - India filed more trade complaints against China than any other nation in 2009, according to figures from China’s commerce ministry. “A balance of exports and imports is important,” Indian Trade Minister Anand Sharma said in January in Beijing. China’s trade surplus with India grew 46% in 2009 to $16 billion, probably aggravated by the weakening of the yuan against the Indian rupee.

China continues to remain the world’s largest foreign holder of the US dollar bonds which stands at US$895 billion. The second biggest holder of the US debt is Japan (US$760 billion).

Premier Wen will deliver the Government Work Report in the annual session of the National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s parliament, beginning on March 5. It will spell out Beijing’s economic blueprint for 2010 and economic growth targets.

Shaw Capital Management Korea - This year’s theme is balanced economic growth. The focus of new fiscal spending is set to shift away from new infrastructure investment to education, healthcare, and other pro-consumption areas. There may be a push to accelerate urbanisation outside of the large cities and in inland regions. The party will endorse measures to increase wages and income.  The government has already raised the minimum wage in cities from Beijing to Guangzhou by 10% or more early this year.

The Wen cabinet has indicated that old-age benefits for peasants will be
tried out this year and will be made available to all by 2015. Monetary policy
will focus on bringing down credit growth to a normal rate of around 17%,
from last year’s excessive 32%.

Shaw Capital Management Korea - While the 2009 NPC harped on attaining an 8% growth rate, the priority
for this year’s session is to ensure a more equitable distribution of national
income. This year’s NPC will benefit from the lifting of the global economic
gloom that hung over last year’s session.

U.S.–China bilateral relations have grown tense over President Barack
Obama’s meeting with the Dalai Lama followed by the Secretary of State,
Hillary Clinton meeting. The cyber attack on Google Inc. is widely seen as
originating in China. Google has not officially declared that the government
had any role in it.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Indian’s Economy

The Indian economy will grow by 7.2% in fiscal year 2010 (April to March)
as a surge in manufacturing and a rebound in services blunt the impact of
a drop in farm output. The recovery became increasingly private sectorled
during the second half of the fiscal year, which bodes well for its
sustainability. The government expects the Indian economy to grow by
8.5% in the next financial year that begins April 1, 2010 and to reach its
goal of 10% annual economic growth in the coming years.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Indian’s Economy - Inflation in India has spurted in recent months, as the worst rains in nearly four decades exacerbated supply shortages. The wholesale price index rose
a provisional 8.56% — higher than the 8.5%, which the Reserve Bank of
India expects to be reached by the end of the year through March. As petrol
and diesel prices have been raised in the last week of February, the inflation
rate may rise to 9.8% by the end of March. The IMF expects the wholesale
inflation rate to reach 8% by March, before easing to 5.5% in March 2011.
India’s exports rose sharply in January while non-oil imports also surged.
Higher growth in non-oil imports vis-à-vis exports shows that domestic
investment and consumption demand continues to be strong, outpacing
rising global demand for Indian exports.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Exports in January rose 11.5% from a year earlier to $14.34 billion, after
having increased 9.3% to $14.61 billion in December. Imports surged 35.5%
in January to $24.70 billion while oil imports galloped 56% to $7.05 billion.
The steady recovery in shipments, coupled with rising bank credit and
accelerating inflation, may prompt the RBI to raise policy rates at its next
review meeting in April.

The central bank had refrained from raising overnight rates at its last
meeting in January but ordered banks to set aside a greater share of deposits
as reserves, absorbing 360 billion rupees ($7.84 billion) from the banking
system.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: The Finance Minister presented his budget on February 26th. He reduced
personal taxation in middle-income households and rolled back some of
the fiscal stimuli provided to industry. He increased excise taxes and brought
more services under the tax net. In the world of rising concerns over
sovereign debt, he projected the deficit to come down to 5.5% in FY11 from
a revised 6.7% in FY10.

Markets have approved the government’s actions, as it laid out a medium
term plan for fiscal consolidation, aiming to reduce the deficit to 4.8% in
FY12, and to 4.1% in FY13. The deficit is 6.9% in the current fiscal year.
Ratings agencies have also liked the proposed fiscal consolidation road
map, but are in no hurry to change the country’s rating.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: The government borrowing — which would have crowded out credit markets
this year, making it difficult for the private sector to raise capital and
putting pressure on interest rates — has been contained to net borrowing
of about $80bn (£52.5bn).

This figure is 20% lower than many industry figures and analysts had
expected. The stock market has gained more than 3% since the budget was
presented.

Sunday, July 10, 2011

Lack of Raw Material and the World Economy: Shaw Capital Management Article

Shaw Capital Management Korea News Release - We have seen major developing economies like China and India apply the brakes earlier this year, as inflation grew on the back of commodity shortages. World growth was running at 4.5%, only 1% or so below the record growth rates of the mid-2000s. This was too fast for raw material supplies to accommodate with current technology.

Lack of Raw Material and the World Economy: Shaw Capital Management Article  - World productivity growth has been slowed down by this raw material shortage … this in our view was the cause of the sharp slowdown in 2006 which in its turn caused the collapse of demand for houses in the US and so the sub-prime crisis.

It will take a decade for new technology and possibly new supplies to allow renewed productivity growth; with plentiful supplies of raw materials this was the era of computer-led growth in productivity.

As growth has been slowed worldwide, so already slow growth in developed countries has slowed even further. This is inevitable.

Lack of Raw Material and the World Economy: Shaw Capital Management Article - If these countries were to speed up, demand for commodities would rise faster, spurring sharp price rises, which in turn would force them to slow back down.

It is convenient to focus on shortage of credit and excess debt post-banking crisis. But the fundamentals would not permit much growth even if there were plenty of credit and no debt; if the latter situation were the case, then monetary policy would need to tighten. As it is monetary policy can remain easy with the banks in endless disarray.

Seen against this background, the slowdown is natural and should not surprise us. Equally natural is that equity markets are settling, while bond yields fall, with inflation being held down and return on capital depressed by slow productivity growth.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: However, none of this implies a return to recession in OECD countries. This would be prevented by a return to quantitative easing and even a deferral of fiscal tightening. Governments and central banks in the OECD are under no pressure from inflation to force down activity. Debt/GDP ratios are rising and this is forcing fiscal tightening. But the pace of this is a matter of choice.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: “As far as monetary policy is concerned, the need remains to stimulate recovery of the banks since they remain the primary channel of intermediation”

Furthermore there are investment opportunities in the present environment: high returns to technological advance in commodity use, for example, and to exploration for new sources of supply.

Exports are growing well, as capital goods flow to the fast-growing developing world. Consumption is no longer depressed but rather beginning to grow.

As far as monetary policy is concerned, the need remains to stimulate recovery of the banks since they remain the primary channel of intermediation, despite all the ways in which firms and individuals have managed to find alternative finance sources since the banking crisis.
This points to further quantitative easing. Interest rate policy has become irrelevant; the rates at which private loans are being made bears little relation any more to the rates of interest on government short-term loans.

Lack of Raw Material and the World Economy: Shaw Capital Management Newsletter - The very low rates central banks are charging banks for loans are merely a subsidy to banks; better instead to release banks from the neurotic demands currently being made by regulators for much more capital, for greater caution in loan-making and so on.

Meanwhile it is time to restore official interest rates to their proper function as regulators of the private rate of interest; they should now be raised towards more normal rates.

Shaw Capital Management: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US Part 2 of 2

Shaw Capital Management Korea:  World wide recovery appears to have firmed up. In the UK the statistics have lagged behind the anecdotal signs of the same thing. No one still believes the ONS’s peculiar decision to call a revised GDP drop of 0.2% in the third quarter (now revised down from an initial estimate of 0.4%). The UK now have not merely surveys of purchasing managers but also
employment, production and retail sales figures, all of which suggest that the economy levelled off in the third quarter and could have possibly also started expanding then, and was definitely expanding in the fourth.

Shaw Capital Management: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US Part 2 of 2 The reason seems to be that the operation of the ‘inflation tax’ is arbitrary and therefore seen as unfair—those who pay it are often the most vulnerable—e.g. with pensions invested in government bonds—while those with wealth and good advisors can usually avoid it. Ordinary taxation, however unpopular it may be, can be spread across the populace in a fair way, and so can normal ‘Treasury cuts’, which command wide respect as the only way of checking inevitable bureaucratic waste.

Since debt has been issued over a long period on the assumption of such a target, the gain to the Treasury from a burst of inflation would be large; it would act like a windfall tax on bond investors.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US Part 2 of 2 - So what each of these governments needs to do is put in place a mechanism for the medium term that first brings down the deficit and then ensures that the debt/GDP ratio falls slowly with growth. Meanwhile for some time to come there will be a need for monetary ease as the financial system is nursed back to health; this will keep the financing costs down.

The growth rate of credit to the non-bank private sector remains exceedingly low; while other sources of liquidity have increased as noted earlier, it is still clear that liquidity is not generally available on competitive terms to many small firms and ordinary households.

What has happened so far is that larger firms and wealthier households have benefited from low rates of interest while small firms and poorer households have found it difficult to gain access to finance at all. This is no basis for a modern economy to function well and recover confidently. Yet it is clear that restoring competitive finance when banks have been so damaged will take some time; there is no definite date when one can yet predict it will occur, what with the new capital required, the new procedures to be implemented, the paying-off of government to be done and so forth.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US Part 2 of 2 - So what each of Our conclusion is that quantitative easing has worked to partially offset the credit crunch and will continue to be needed as the banking system is rebuilt. Furthermore fiscal policy too will need to be supportive throughout the coming fiscal year, 2010/11—even though a process must be set in place to reduce the public deficit over the following 5 10 years.  The threat posed by the banking crisis was massive and has not gone away; and while it is premature to celebrate, the policy response has so far been effective. It needs to be continued.